Box State Footy Game Preview - Colorado Rapids vs Austin FC

It has been a while since I’ve sat down and wrote out a proper Box State Game Preview for the Burgundy Boys. When the time allows for it, like this week, I am more than able to jot down some words, overcome my imposter syndrome, and give a good preview of the game and events ahead for the Rapids. I have written a lot more than last year, but I can’t help but feel that the inconsistency of the writing does make for a harder time to establish a good rapport and credibility with you, the reader.

Box State Footy is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

If you’re clamoring for my week to week Rapids takes, Burgundy Banter is your place to go given the easier nature of recording podcasts. This week’s episode featured Dave Wegner of Centennial 38 fame and it left little time for an Austin preview. So: here we are! The Colorado Rapids welcome Austin FC amidst an international break that could signal the start of a make-or-break Summer for the squad. June and July have historically been good months for the Pids and they’ll need to find some form not only for seeding in the wild Western Conference but also to build some confidence heading in to the second half of the season. They’ve done well to get here, now they have to follow through and finish the season strong.

Flow State

The Rapids have had to navigate some absences in their recent spell of games. Djordje Mihailovic has remained available throughout those games and is not only justifying his status as a Designated Player but is surging towards the top of the All-Time Rapids Greats list. Ahead of his first season in burgundy, many had earmarked him to have an MVP-like season. His slow start to the season and the more team-centered structure forced him to take less of an MVP role on the team and settled as a quality attacking piece that worked well within the Chris Armas system but was reliant on the rest of the system to produce. There were plenty of moments last season where the team were without Mihailovic and they managed well without him further highlighting the fact that while Djordje was a great player last season, he wasn’t the “most valuable”. For me, the MVP of the Rapids season last year was Cole Bassett who’s absence at the end of the season hurt the Pids more than whatever benefit they had with Mihailovic in the Starting XI.

This year, the dynamic has changed. The case for Mihailovic as the team’s MVP this season is growing stronger. The Chicago-raised midfielder is doing more on the ball for the Pids this year. As premature as it was to have compared him to Lionel Messi last season, this year he is truly encapsulating the Argentine’s best quality: his ability to raise the team’s level.

The “Flow State” section has always been meant to assess how the team is…flowing. Without their Serbian-American playmaker1 the team underperforms across the board. This much was evident in the Rapids last match when Mihailovic came off with a slight knock in the 54th minute on the road match against the Portland. What was a strong 1-0 lead with a gutsy first half performance quickly soured once the Timbers rallied for a 2-1 comeback following the red card given to Wayne Frederick (who had come on for Mihailovic). It’s easy to look past that catastrophic second half performance given the team were without Chidozie Awaziem, Cole Bassett, Zack Steffen and a questionable Rafa Navarro (who later subbed on) but this was a team that just that prior weekend had won 1-0 at home without them. So are the Rapids missing their starters or was this a case of midweek shenanigans?

Absences

The Rapids have been without some players for the last few weeks. Cole Basset has not scored a goal since the road match against the Earthquakes back on March 15th. In the twelve games since, he’s only recorded two assists and has missed three games; one with a calf injury and, more recently, the last two games with an ankle injury. Rafael Navarro has missed three games but a blooming Darren Yapi has filled in well enough to help secure some wins for the Pids. Chidozie Awaziem missed the last two matches due to personal reasons. We’ve seen a bit more of Ian Murphy who, although at times is a bit shaky, is showing his versatility and reliability as a backline stand in across two positions.

A testament to the squad reinforcement this prior offseason, it’s safe to say that the team quality and depth this season have been raised to an okay-to-good floor and in MLS that’s the barrier for entry in the playoffs. Why was the recent lineup against St. Louis & Portland my favorite of the season? For one, my predictive game model2 absolutely loved the few stints of minutes each of the depth players had in previous games and had projected them to do well over the course of 90 minutes.

Those depth players being Sam Bassett in for his brother, Nico Hansen in for Steffen, Murphy in for Chido, Yapi in for Rafa, and Theodore Ku-DiPietro in for Kevin Cabral. More importantly, however, is it was a chance to see the #Rapkids back in action. This kind of lineup, even if it was forced, was something the Rapids did not have much of last year. Rotational minutes were few and far between so to see some rotational games and a variety of squad depth makes for, again, a good floor.

That same lineup did get crushed midweek, but it was the same lineup that up until the 54th minute were having a cracking game. The minutes following Mihailovic’s exit3 highlighted the fact that the team have nobody that can match his contribution to the team4. Rafa had about two minutes on the field before the red card and the inevitable winner following soon after. Would the Brazilian striker have found a winner for the Pids? Without anyone there to help him find it, I doubt it, but it’s a valid case to be made and it’s overall a game that shouldn’t need to much re-addressing. The absences have been a mixed bag is my larger point here.

Atheist FC

Austin FC operate with no creator. No big-bang player to initiate any sparks of life into their attack. Austin overhauled their attack across two windows-first with DP signing Osman Bukari ($7 million) in the 2024 Summer Window and subsequently in the 2025 Primary Transfer Window with the DP signings of Brandon Vazquez ($10 million) and Myrto Uzuni ($12.3 million). They did so without addressing their prior chance creation issues in midfield. For as much as former DP Sebastian Driussi provided on the box score last season, he wasn’t a playmaker but was shoehorned into being one anyway. He still played as a ten, but his profile was more of a finisher. Driussi benefitted from the work of his pressing wingers and water carriers who did the dirty work for him allowing him to be the best version of himself.

Fast forward to 2025 and one of the more expensive frontlines in MLS through 17 games have combined for 8 total goal contributions this season for an average of $3.67 million per goal and assist5. Sporting director Rodolfo Borrel’s time in MLS was projected to be ambitious but so far he’s proving to be a front office flop and that’s without mentioning the underwhelming coaching hire in Nico Estevez. It just goes to show that you can’t throw money at a problem and expect it to be fixed. For as much as they have spent on their fancy new car, they forgot to replace the wheels which remain about as flat as their attacking play. To Austin’s credit, they did try to replace that production with the signing of Besard Sabovic but he’s primarily a holding midfielder and doesn’t create; wrong tire size if we’re sticking with the car analogy. All of this while Luciano Acosta was available on the market.

The Rapids beat Los Verdes for their first road win and regular season win. In that game, Austin held much of the ball, out shot their opponent, and had chances to score a goal to mount a potential comeback but Colorado persisted and escaped with all three. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this was the narrative again going the other way with Austin playing a pesky road match that leaves them with all three.

Austin struggle with the ball much like the Rapids. Both teams are towards the bottom in team possession stats. Austin has only recently now started to embrace a more direct style of play but where as the Rapids prefer a bit of chaos with a high line, Austin prefer to sit deep and absorb. They’ve had some glimpses of fun direct play but when you have two target attackers in Uzuni and Vazquez with neither dropping to collect and then create, it makes for a bad case of isolated soccer.

The Rapids are built well here to play against Austin. With no one quarterbacking Austin’s attack, it’s less likely the Rapids are going to be sucked into some risky second balls in midfield and if they do they’re not going to be punished as severely. Austin’s counter attack has been developing but anyone you expect to launch these counter attacks from deep are going to be met with that aforementioned high line. If Austin take their time and want to play with the ball, that plays right into Colorado’s hands as their transition is less flashy but more effective than the expensive signings Austin is rolling in with.

Injury Report:

Colorado Rapids:

Cole Bassett - Ankle (Out)
Ali Fadal - Knee (Out)
Wayne Frederick - International Duty (Out)
Alex Harris - Ankle (Out)
Zack Steffen - Knee (Out)

Austin FC:

Micah Burton - International Duty (Out)
Julio Cascante - Hamstring (Out)
Myrto Uzuni - International Duty (Out)

Predictions and Model Outcomes

Myrto Uzuni being out changes the dynamic minimally for Austin. Obrian is a more direct player than Uzuni and he’s more of a player they can launch long balls to. If he finds any space, the Rapids should have the quality in their backline to negate a rather average MLS winger who hasn’t posed much threat in the league since joining back in 2021. El Tree could also look to use former Colorado player Diego Rubio as a second striker. His ability to create for himself buys the team time in their transitions and is the only chance creation the side generates. Robert Taylor recently joined the team from Inter Miami and works hard off the ball and is a bit more impactful than Obrian. Either one could start but prior history shows they usually go with Obrian in this spot. Austin could also switch to a back five if they prefer going all out on playing deep counter attacking soccer with Zan Kolmanic’s inclusion in to the side shifting Biro to a CB role. Austin have options but unfortunately for them, they’re changes the Rapids should handle easily at home.

Box State Trivia: Brendan Hines-Ike returns to the Box State having been born in Denver, Colorado. One stop on his path to pro was with Chivas USA led by then manager at the time Robin Fraser.

For Colorado, Rafael Navarro is a massive addition back into the lineup. His link up play with Djordje stands as the only reliable cohesion the side has between two attackers. Navarro also has a track record of scoring against Texan teams and I expect he’ll be itching to get back on the score sheet and into form. Without Cole Bassett, Josh Atencio should continue to fill in but I have larger questions about this signing that I’m saving for another piece. Jackson Travis continues to receive developing minutes ahead of Sam Vines who’s absences leaves more questions than answers. Nicolas Hansen has been fantastic ahead of the injured Zack Steffen who’s USMNT woes continue as he’s now prematurely returned from camp. Speaking of, I know Mihailovic has larger aspirations to play for the national team but as a selfish Rapids fan I’m thankful he’s in the lineup and with the team for this stretch of games. He is far from just a player within a system now and is the larger piece this team cannot be without.

Model Projections:

After accounting for the starting lineups, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw according to the model. The model is taking into note and weighing the recency of both team’s form including the midweek spell of games which historically has lessened team’s overall impact. One could assume there’s a slight edge to Colorado here given they’re at home and rested with no midweek match to account for. It’s up to Chris Armas and the Burgundy Boys to set the tone early for the kind of night Austin will have. A lack of bite could allow Austin to settle in. The Rapids won’t win this game on their sheer press alone. They’ll need to be lethal in front of net and the longer the game goes on without that first goal from the Pids the more Austin will play into the match. I believe the Rapids have the quality here to beat Austin FC but until we see what they look like coming out of the midweek games the model gives plenty of reason for a draw.

Score Prediction: 1-1.

Goalscorers - Rafael Navarro, Brandon Vazquez

This is one of those games that will come with adversity. It’s how the Rapids handle that adversity that will reveal this team’s true floor. I’ve touted the squad reinforcement earlier but this front office has yet to elevate this team into a championship window since 2021. If the Rapids were to justify not spending in this upcoming window, even though they really should, they’ll need to prove their quality and depth here is enough in the long run for this ongoing project. The last thing the club could afford to do right now is take a massive step back.

Thanks for reading Box State Footy! This post is public so feel free to share it.

For more Box State Footy, head to our brand new website! www.boxstatefooty.com