Preview - Colorado Rapids @ St Louis CITY

Predictions have been made, hypotheses were crafted, and there was a nifty little CONCACAF Champions Cup win there to boot as well. With every nitpick of the roster, it’s build in the process, and the learned affinity for draft picks; the Rapids are through their preseason and set to embark on their 30th Season. They open on the road against St Louis City this Saturday, February 22nd. I will be there for one of my few live Rapids games for the year until at least the Summer. It’s shaping up to be a frigid affair in the Midwest; but as true sickos, we’re growing some affinity for that as well. What’s in store for the Burgundy Boys this weekend and what should you know about St Louis City?

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Flow State (The State of Flow)

As previously mentioned, the Rapids played and won a dogged match against the posh and pizzazz of LAFC. A Mihailovic penalty and dazzling free kick strike in the second half was enough to see out the win against LAFC who left with a parting gift; a late road goal to sweeten up the aggregate score for their return leg. Outside of their one goal, there was hardly much shine from the Black and Gold who were limited by a Rapids team whose press and counter press showed out. Chido Awaziem was a stud and his toolset is ready made for this style of team. His inclusion is really what will define the Rapids this season. More importantly, the team put up a massive performance without Andreas Maxso who’s big budget salary would look a lot nicer on a talented back up striker or a proven domestic MLS winger than where it’s at now1. If Maxso is shown the door, that opens the Rapids to fit in one last final signing that could solidify their attacking (🤞) depth until at least the Summer window which, admittedly, the Rapids haven’t been historically active in2. I bring up depth because as hard as the Rapids fought last night the current team’s output is not sustainable in the current short term.

Heavy Legs

Key word here is short term. The Rapids season may likely get off to a rough start in one way or another. Given the position the Rapids are in there is nothing wrong with a bad start. Especially given the fact that THE RAPIDS WON A CCC MATCH AT HOME. After consecutive years of disappointments in very similar weather, the Pids delivered and sent fans home happy that night. It does come with major costs, however. The first obvious cost was LAFC’s late goal scored by Aaron Long in the 87' minute. In typical Rapids fashion, the late conceded goal doesn’t particularly inspire confidence in this team’s ability to close out games especially with a return leg on the road in a historically rough place to visit. Another concern is there’s another cold match right around the corner. The morning after the CCC match felt like a hangover from getting beaten down by the character-building cold. That win was a character building win for this exciting Rapids team and they’re going to need it against St Louis City.

Bundesliga Merchants

If you’ve at all fiddled around on any recent FIFA game3 and started scrolling to the German Nation you’ll see that the game has licensing for all three Bundesliga leagues. St. Louis City sure do love to hang around here quite a lot for their signings and philosophy. Sporting director Lutz Pfannenstiel boasts a wild Wikipedia player and managerial career and his favorite league to scout for talent is that of his own native Germany. St Louis feature two standout attacking players who come from the 2. Bundesliga that being Marcel Hartel (formerly of FC St. Pauli) and Cedric Teuchert (formerly of Hannover 96) whose play in MLS has been impressive thus far. Both players arrived last summer and averaged 782 minutes between the two. In those minutes, they combined for 17 Goals and Assists equaling leading striker Joao Klauss’ 8 G+A stat in a third of the time. For all intents and purposes, St Louis were amidst a lame duck season with not much to play for given their playoff hopes were very Rapids-like in other missed-playoff years. Hartel and Teuchert gained experience, the team retooled their depth in the offseason, and they hired a new head coach; Olof Mellberg.

Mellberg boasts rugged top flight playing experience fitting the exact stereotype and caricature of the good looking European fella who waltzes into head coaching roles across various levels in American soccer. Mellberg’s experience is legit though having played for Aston Villa, Juventus, and Villareal to name a few clubs. His coaching experience is a lot more modest but very impressive and St. Louis are taking a risk with still a largely unproven manager. The feather in his cap? It wasn’t getting eliminated by Peru in World Cup Qualifying. He did something a bit more unorthodox than just underperforming; the opposite in fact. Brommapojkarna (say that quickly three times in a row) had been relegated to the third tier of Swedish soccer by the time Mellberg became head coach in 2015. Elsewhere, while a future Rapids head coach was wrapping up his international duties, Mellberg lifted Brommapojkarna to the first division of Swedish football utilizing a robust youth academy structure.4 MLS is a league where coaches with Mellberg’s profile can make the most of what little is afforded. Jim Curtin is the model archetype for this given his influence in Philadelphia was massive and felt for many accumulating years. Can Mellberg become that for St Louis? Possibly. But not within the next few months. The Rapids have the benefit of playing a side who are still figuring out their tactical makeup and best XI with a wide range of returning underperforming players.

Yeah… but so are the Rapids.

The Rapids are also figuring it out and are relying on underperforming players from last season. On Tuesday, Rosenberry played on the left like I had predicted, Maxso was dropped completely, Ronan picked up a knock, and Navarro had better have taken care of his body after running around pressing whereever he could in the cold. It’s going to get pretty complicated for the Rapids here if they wish to start the season on a good note and advance in the CCC. They may likely have to pick one or the other and of the two, I can see this team punting on the match against STL.

One tactical solution to account for fatigue is to simply play on the back foot and cede possession to St Louis. The Rapids kill in transition thanks to Navarro’s off-ball work rate and while I didn’t find him impressive when in possession on Tuesday, you still want to deploy him as a nagging presence among a St Louis backline that really hasn’t meaningfully improved this offseason5.

The key question here will remain on whether or not the Rapids can sustain whatever game plan they decide on for a full 90 minutes. Do you press early in hopes of a quick smash and grab lead? Will they welcome more danger-with the intent of mitigating fatigue- by implementing a less intensive game plan? The game plan here sort of depends on what St. Louis want to do and with a new head coach it could be hard to determine what the Rapids are coming up against exactly.

If CITY plan on ceding possession, it’s going to be a lot of Awaziem on the ball and St. Louis will want to press him. I don’t expect Chido to ping over-the-top-Danny-dime-like through balls to evade trouble, but I do expect him to be the kind of guy that puts out any fires before they happen and protect the ball from costly turnovers. If too many City players press him, it could cause some concern especially with the fatigue from Tuesday’s matchup. Awaziem will need help, but if afforded said help he should be a composed and calming presence on the backline. You need that reliability especially over the course of these next two road games.

Any St. Louis counter attack should be promptly sniffed out by fullbacks Reggie Cannon and Keegan Rosenberry closing in while Laraz and/or Atencio provide a channel to get the ball to Cole’s Bassett’s feet.6 Cannon went down late in the CCC match which means we may likely get Jackson Travis filling in on either the left or right fullback spot. Long term, this is probably the right play regardless of Cannon’s health7. However, Travis is more of a “hope and pray he doesn’t get exposed” developing full back than one like Keegan Rosenberry or Steven Beitashour who have that steady, if not imperfect floor to call upon. Travis’ floor is still being determined. Maxso was AWOL on Tuesday, but if he makes the trip do you sit or start? There’s a case to be made that with all the center back competition he could rise to the occasion and prove why he’s on such a high salary but I don’t think we’ve seen Maxso “rise to the occasion” many times throughout his stint in Burgundy. Murphy and Awaziem played so well and have built in chemistry that it’s 50/50 for me. If he plays: great, that’s salary not sitting on the bench (or home) being wasted away. If he doesn’t: great, there are better options ahead of him. Still, all three center backs should play well against the ball in whatever combination they decide to play and If St. Louis want to counter attack, there’s a good chance Colorado goes toe to toe here just on sheer defensive prowess alone.

The biggest concern will be if the Rapids have possession and what they do with it. Many teams who are really good at pressing and in transition get horrified during build up play if they have it for too long. There were enough sequences in the CCC match for me to see the overall build up play looks and plays solid. The team had a swagger about them despite the cold. It’s just up to someone (ANYONE) to bury the ball into the back of the net. Preferably from open play this time. The Rapids brand of soccer is evident and it’s built on strong defensive principles. Will it sustain itself before a possible burn out or extenuating injury? Reggie Cannon gave plenty of concern on Tuesday and that’s not a player you can go through large spells of the season without.

Predictions

I’m quite high on this Rapids team but there remain large holes and questions. If Navarro ever goes down there’s concerns backup striker Darren Yapi isn’t fully fit to take his place-then what? That will likely be answered the day of the game. Ronan also did not make the gameday squad with rumors around the grapevine saying he picked up a slight knock in training. Calvin Harris likely fills in ahead of Omir Fernandez who I thought had a classic “put in a great shift only to not score” performance where fans analyze the latter more than the former. Josh Atencio could make his debut and would be great for about 45 minutes if you want to save him for CCC on Tuesday. This is how I think the side lines up:

I’m not sold on St. Louis’ backline and if the Rapids played like they did against LAFC, you have plenty of empty space in between St. Louis’ holding midfielders and backline to blast through and overrun. By and large, the game is going to be played in the midfield and of the two, the Rapids midfield is much better. CITY don’t have a destroyer in midfield who’s going to step to Cole Bassett once he receives the ball, their midfield double pivot shields possess great active defensive play but they overturn the ball a lot and disrupting the tempo setter Eduard Lowen (also formerly of Bundesliga) could make City uncomfortable there. These are problems Mellberg likely patched up in preseason so we’ll see what the new look is especially if they go to a three at the back system.8They have great attacking pedigree with their big guns up top but they lack ammunition. The Rapids attack have plenty of ammo, they just need to be more accurate and actually shoot.9

This one is hard because I really don’t want to talk myself into high expectations for this one especially given the history of CCC fatigue. Midweek CCC matches have severely affected not only the Rapids but multiple MLS teams in the past. It’s often said “how you start a season sets the tone for the rest of the games”. Chris Armas’ second impression in CCC was much improved from his first. A positive result on the road to open the season and you could start to form a way10 too early narrative here for coach of the year. Results matter though and getting one on Saturday would be HUGE. Armas can motivate this team to lock in and play through some grueling encounters. It’s going to be dicey but it’s now time for the players to rise up to the occasion.

Score Prediction: 1-1.

Goalscorers - Cedric Teuchert, Calvin Harris
Two teams that are looking for continuity more than anything else, the Rapids have a great result to build off of following Tuesday’s night’s match. The upcoming stretch is tricky and a tall task but they have a lot more going for them than in prior years. Fatigue will ultimately decide this game.

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