It's funny when you can sense how a game is going to play out before it even happens. Such was the case in last week's match preview where I correctly predicted the score-line and highlighted some reasons for such a result to occur.
Some goalkeeping uncertainty on the smaller pitch raises concerns as well and despite the amount of time NYC spent in an uneven game state, they have the clear talent disparity and are well coached. The Galaxy on paper held some of that same talent disparity, but at home Colorado's principled structure and Wells' tactical choices got the better of the G's. Against NYCFC, there's too many different factors that can easily lead to the above score line and given the cross-conference state of the match, this is one I believe we will be collectively looking to move on from.
Juan Fernandez
Before we collectively move on, surely there's something worth taking away from this one, right?
Rapids Report
Last Match: New York City FC 3 - 1 Colorado Rapids
Unlike last week's first half deep dive, this report is going to be a lot more...rapid to say the least.
The Colorado Rapids continued implementing their playing-out-of-the-back style but they ran into the same issue they did against Seattle: there was no exit plan. And how could there be on a baseball pitch? At Lumen, a gridiron football pitch no less, Seattle's organized structure and midfield bulldogs made it so that even if the Rapids had any wing space to play through, no entry ball was allowed in the middle resulting in frustrating attacking sequences.
Colorado recycled the ball well enough to maintain possession and at the very least allowed themselves some time to figure out a way through NYCFC's line. The one goal they scored had been against the run of play after having caught NYCFC overcommitted to one side of the pitch. Darren Yapi's run on the goal was a simple one, it occupied just enough space for an inside pass, and was capped off with a tidy finish. The goal didn't directly come from a sequence of play or any set tactical principle – it was a goal brought to life by the Rapids within the cosmic flow of the game.
This game was an agonizing watch. Both teams had the same issue: how do we break these lines?
Try to go up through the middle channel and you're going straight into a clog of midfielders. Try to go wide and you quickly lose space and before you know it you've conceded a throw-in. You can go more direct, but there's not much stopping defenses from just heading it towards the midfield clog for a potential recycle.
This heat map is just straight up disgusting.
With a field tilt of NYC 48/52 COL, it's no surprise just how even this game was from a ball progressing stand point. There's no Wells-ball analysis that you can take from this one into the next. It is still a sample size, and points are still up for grabs, but it's hard to come away with any conclusions from a tactical standpoint. For as critical and nitpicky as I have been of the wins, I have a lot more grace for the loss here.
What doesn't get any grace is the way in which the Rapids conceded the fist two goals. A "When Playing It Out of the Back Goes Wrong" moment and a lapse in set piece defense were the ultimate difference makers in this one. Without this pair of "that's so Rapids" comical errors the game would have ended in a 1-1 draw. For as much as they willed their only goal within the "moment" of the match, it came following two costly mistakes.
Many Rapids fans shuddered at the initial impression left when seeing their team playing it out the back for the first time this season in Seattle. They came dangerously close to conceding this type of goal against the Sounders, so on a smaller pitch this felt all but inevitable. The set piece conceded goal is a lot more comical and I'm sure the team will have spent time in training polishing it up. On any type of pitch, these conceded goals are a headache to concede but at Yankee Stadium they are NYCFC's bread and butter.
Soccer is a game about space but it is also about the absence of space. How much space you have shifts the kind of game being played. Much like the ever expanding universe, there's a lot more opportunity for cosmic nuance and shifts in energy that can occur with more space. Confine the space and you're limiting just how expansive these ideas and shifts can be. The objective remains the same throughout all field sizes – put the ball in the back of the net and prevent the other team from doing so – but without space there's less innovation and ideas. The windows of goalscoring opportunity become smaller, the margins become more narrow, and you have to rely on players individually arriving to the moment – however small those moments are – instead of via collective action. The Rapids are a team who, collectively, can impress (and have impressed) but when tasked with the individuality of these "moments" are quite a step below the rest of the league. This is what I mean when I say they lack a ceiling and their floor, which has been propped up by the style of play Wells has implemented, completely falls out in games like this one.
Games at Yankee Stadium tend to be an anomaly and while we have seen the Rapids pull off some creative ideas for winning on this field, given how early we are in to the Matt Wells era, this is one, again, to move on from. I'd rather piece together this team's faults via the merits of an actual field. Besides, cross conference matchups aren't as costly in your respective conference and it is a long season. One wants to see the Rapids claim as many points before the World Cup break, but one must also remember just how much easier the schedule becomes after the Summer.
@akeaswaran.me made this neat graph of a quick strength of schedule model. Really interesting to see how relative difficulty between the front and back parts of the season may drive narratives. Neville might find his seat pretty hot, while Varas is my pick for COTY winner w/ a likely hot start.
— Paul Harvey (@paulharvey.theoutfield.nyc) 2026-02-17T00:10:44.112Z
Opposition Scouting Report
Last Match: LA Galaxy 1 - 2 Sporting Kansas City
Few teams were worse than the Colorado Rapids in 2025. Sporting Kansas City were one of those teams and, much like the Rapids, their offseason was one which saw them dismantle the former iteration of the team in favor for a completely new team; not just from the players on the pitch but also across their soccer operations.
It took a full MLS season for Sporting to overhaul their team following the firing of Head Coach Peter Vermes; a man who had been embedded within the fabric of the organization. The change was not only necessary, it was really the only move forward for a team that had been middling for the better part of four years. Interim head coach Kerry Zavagnin took the reigns in '25 but the Vermes stench still lingered via his presence. Zavagnin was not brought back despite the mighty achievement of beating the Rapids twice that season.
To first overhaul the club, SKC first needed to find a top-down vision for said overhaul. They looked towards NYCFC's David Lee who became the club's general manager overseeing all of the soccer operations from analytics, scouting, player recruitment and a whole bunch of other duties and responsibilities. Months later, and ahead of the MLS season, Lee's work in the offseason looked a little something like this:
From the day Lee was signed – September 30th, 2025 – to the start of the first week of the season – February 16th, 2026 – there was only 19 players on SKC's roster; four of which were goalkeepers. The roster was, and still is, rather thin. This allows the team some flexibility for future signings and summer maneuverings but ask any SKC fan how they felt about the status of the roster to start the year and you'll be sure to see some concerned faces.
So, now four games into the season, what does the team look like?
Well...
If we look at the Rapids so far as the sum of all the collective parts within the Wells-ball system, SKC mirrors this idea just through a different lens. Colorado have a set style of play and a rotating cast of players to fulfill the system. Sporting, on the other hand, have a set roster with a rotating cast of styles.
Head coach Raphael Wicky, who signed in Early January, has been tinkering with the side and trying his best to find the best utilization of his players. The attack is still led by Dejan Joveljic (one of few bright spots left from last season) but who supports him and how has changed rather drastically from a week to week basis. One game featured winger Shapi Suleymanov playing as the No 10. Another week, right back turned central midfielder (turned back into right back because the team lacked a first team quality option) Jake Davis played at the No 10. and then shifted back to right back after an injury to Justin Reynolds. Center back Jansen Miller is now finding bench minutes after having been one of the better pieces in a mediocre backline. The minutes he has for for SKC this season have been at right back (or maybe RCB within a three back system?). Last year's starting No. 10, Manu Garcia, is now being played deeper as a holding midfielder with more duties as an eight. Since making the change, the team have stabilized and earned their first win on the road against LA Galaxy.
The many shapes of SKC - MLS Analytics
Through four games, 1W - 1D - 2L, SKC are still figuring it out. They come into this one with plenty to prove – as do the Rapids. Unlike the Rapids, (or very much like the Rapids in other years!) the team are still awaiting some signings to join the team and establish more of an identity and play style. Lasse Berg Johnsen made his debut against the Galaxy and is projected to be a foundational piece the team could rely on in build up. They've recently completed the signing of Diego Borges who could be the prominent center back signing they've needed for quite some time now. SKC are a work in progress and for that reason there's less of a clear idea of how this game could play out. Did SKC just get lucky against the Galaxy given they were without Pec and Paintsil? Just like with Wells, Wicky-ball needs more sample sizes. The fact that both teams still have some larger ambiguity about their talent level says a lot about the current parity structure of Major League Soccer.
Availability Report:
Colorado Rapids:
Reggie Cannon - Ankle (OUT)
Connor Ronan - Leg (OUT)
Sporting Kansas City:
Capita Capemba - Not Due to Injury (OUT)
Ryan Schewe - Hand (OUT)
Zorhan Bassong - Hamstring (Questionable)
Jayden Reid - Ankle (Questionable)
Projected Starting XI's
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Score Prediction: Sporting Kansas City 1 - 1 Colorado Rapids
The Rapids are Off To See the Wizards this weekend and there's not another score that comes to mind more than 1-1. Now, whether this ends up becoming a draw that feels like a loss or one that feels like a win will guide a lot of the narrative but given that both teams have some uncertainty to their game makes a road point very valuable for Colorado.
We know Colorado's floor is supported by the tactical style and foundational ideals of head coach Matt Wells – but just how strong is that floor? SKC's ambiguity in itself is set to reveal more about Colorado's quality. On paper, very little separates these two teams from a quality stand point. Both teams have uncertainty in what they are and thus, how I see it, will lead to a cautious style of play from both teams. Wells wanting to play his style, Wicky wanting to maximize his players roles: I think this has the makings of being a great chess game. The thing about chess games though is they too can end in draws and until we see a good performance from the Rapids on the road, there's little to suggest they have the ability to go into road games like this one and take all three.
