Measuring xPectations

The Colorado Rapids take the field against St Louis at CITY Park on February 22nd for the 2025 season. It will have been 2,747 days since the release of the infamous Rapids Op Ed; a road map for the evolution of the Colorado Rapids under the then new management of Padraig Smith and Wayne Brant; the latter of whom is no longer with the team. In the seven and a half years since, the Rapids have had varying degree of highs and lows. From savvy intra-league wheeling and dealings, intentional contract decisions, the youth pipeline of talented homegrown players, and the minimization of financial risk via loan players; these were all the hallmarks of “The Rapids Way”. This style of Moneyball culminated in a serendipitous 2021 Season which saw the Rapids finish first in the Western Conference.1 That 2021 season would have been ethereal had they taken care of business at home against the Portland Timbers in the playoffs.2 The subsequent season was subpar despite a productive Diego Rubio campaign and the following season was even worse. The Rapids knew they needed to get back on track and they did so by overhauling the roster and playing style in the 2023-24 offseason. New head coach Chris Armas and new star Designated Player Djordje Mihailovic spearheaded the 2024 season that resulted in a return to the playoffs for the Burgundy Boys. Despite the return, it was a playoff series to forget for Colorado who were outscored 9-1 over the course of two games.

So… now what?

The 2025 season is fast approaching. The lack of moves following the trade of Chidozie Awaziem and Ian Murphy from FC Cincinnati gives a lot of “running it back” energy. I’m not opposed to the ‘Pids running it back but a lot of fans, myself included, can’t help but feel like there’s still some missing parts from this being a contender. The obvious one that gets mentioned is winger. The Rapids haven’t had a winger with double digit goal contributions since Michael Barrios who’s 13 Goals and Assists in the 2021 season established him as a fan favorite. Before him was Andre Shinyashiki’s Rookie of the Year season in 2019 where he racked up 10 G+A’s. Fans have raised concerns over the lack of a “destroyer” in the holding midfield position. A player that could provide additional cover in midfield as an anchor for the midfielders ahead of him and a physical bully acting as a moving shield for the backline. The Rapids thought they had that in Lamine Diack; now gone. They definitely had that with Moise Bombito who’s top speed was killer for the Rapids’ transition defense; also now gone. An additional striker to bring off the bench isn’t a bad shout either given Yapi’s inexperience. He gained some valuable minutes last season and his projected trajectory is still pointing up, but as a project it’s much harder to rely on him as a striker to get development given how much teams around the league are investing in their backlines. The left back position also raises some question marks given how night and day the 2021 and 2024 versions of Sam Vines have been. Is that to say that the Rapids are doing “bad” in these positions? Results may vary. However, you can’t say the 2024 version of the Rapids wouldn’t have benefitted from these positions being strengthened in the Summer window. Reggie Cannon added a good dynamic and I like his inclusion in the team. But as the playoffs showed: it was not enough.

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What does the 2025 Version of the Rapids Look Like?

In years past, I loved playing couch coach and toyed heavily with the roster in various formations that I personally would have loved to see. Whether it was putting Braian Galvan in the #10 spot or trying out Shkelzen Gashi at striker, I’ve always had a fairytale version of the Rapids in my head I would have liked like to see. I’m not going to necessarily do that. Not that I don’t enjoy engaging in a little bit of alternate Rapids thought experiments. You can catch my MLS Football Manager live streams for that. (Yes, they’re coming back don’t you worry.3) Instead, in this article, I’m going to explore what the starting XI could be for the year. What changes the team, not me, is likely to make. Instead of thought experiments, we’re going to be putting the scientific method to use. Lets begin first with the starting XI.

Center Back Tune Ups

This is about as “run it back” as you can get it when it comes to the lineup from 24 to 25. The backline will be bolstered by Chidozie Awaziem who in my eyes shoots up to the top of the depth chart at center back. There are some concerns when it comes to his production on the defensive end. His -0.43 Interrupting Goals Added in 2024 was worse than Andreas Maxso ( -0.18) but much better than Lalas Abubakar’s (-1.01). How is he better than Maxso? I would first argue that Awaziem’s negative defensive contributions from 2024 had more to do with Cincinnati’s revolving door of players in their backline. Between injury and suspensions, the Cincy backline never established itself for more than two weeks heading into the playoffs following the Leagues Cup. Awaziem’s ability on the ball is his best attribute. His 0.42 Passing G+ clears last years crop of backs, his modest 0.10 Dribbling G+ suggests he’s comfortable enough with the ball at his feet, and his 0.16 Receiving G+ points to a player quite adept aerially and in set pieces. Maxso was initially billed as this player but hasn’t passed the snuff test and in 2023 manned a poorly constructed backline that conceded 54 goals. If you think that’s bad, the 2024 team conceded 60 goals with an additional 9 in the playoffs for a very not “nice” 69 goals conceded. It’s no surprise why the team felt they needed an upgrade in defense. I am not as high on Murphy given he projects better as a depth option. Though, I do quite like his game and I wouldn’t be upset if he usurped Maxso for the second spot as Murphy’s recent form in MLS has trended more positively. In short, my hypothesis for the defense is as follows:

If Chidozie Awaziem can elevate the backline: the Rapids will be a playoff team.

It may seem counterintuitive to rely on Awaziem for a bolstered backline, but if he can take the on ball duties away from Maxso and let him focus more on defending against the ball, we’ve got the makings of a serviceable to a “good” center back pairing- and that’s really all you need. Long term, I do think moving on from Maxso is in the best interest of the club both financially and stylistically. MLS teams are targeting intra league domestic defenders with high upside; Maxso isn’t that. But Ian Murphy sure is. Between those three, and without having mentioned the wild card Michael Edwards, the center back situation in Commerce City will be an interesting one to follow.

Fullback Fluidity

Towards the tail end of last season, the Rapids relied on a mix of captain Keegan Rosenberry, Reggie Cannon, and Sam Vines at both full back positions with Jackson Travis and the now departed Sebastian Anderson as rotational depth pieces during midweek matches and personnel absences. In the final match of the season, all three featured in a makeshift-back-three with Reggie Cannon playing as the right sided center back with the duo of Vines and Rosenberry reprising their usual positions on the left and right respectively. Of the three, Reggie Cannon is the most adept at individual one-on-one defending- a valuable skill in today’s MLS landscape. There was a notable bump in the Rapids Interrupting G+ numbers once he joined the team and despite accruing less than 400 total minutes of playing time, he finished with the third best interrupting G+ on the team and was the best to close out the season after his arrival. There’s a lot to like about Cannon as he’s the type of player who can lock down players like Denis Bouanga, Joseph Paintsil, Ryan Gauld, and various other wingers who have often shredded the Burgundy Boys both in transition and in possession. The big elephant in the room is: who do you drop?

In the lineup graphic above, I project Rosenberry to beat out Sam Vines for the left back position to allow Cannon to play in his usual right back spot. There was a lot of buzz and discussion about whether or not Cannon would play left back, but the last two games of the regular season featured the above set up. The back three is also a possible formation they can roll out but they’d likely find room on that backline for an additional center back than for all three full backs on the pitch. After all, there’s just four full backs on the roster and tying one of them to the center back position only shortens that depth.

If Reggie Cannon can stay in form, his play will offset any drawbacks from the left back.

Following Moise Bombito’s departure to OGC Nice in July 2024, Rosenberry and Vines’ advanced stats to end the year were underwhelmingly similar. Vines -0.14 Goals Added was just slightly better than Rosenberry’s -0.17. Rosenberry had the edge in passing whilst Vines was the better defender. The left back position is a pick your own poison so long as Cannon remains a mainstay on the right. Whatever faults the team may have on the left will be offset not just with an active Cannon but with an active Awaziem and grounded Maxso. The worst thing that could happen to this team, especially after spending resources on the backline, is a return to negative defensive form from last year. The defense doesn’t just stop at the center backs and full backs. The biggest hole from this swiss cheese defense remains in the goalkeeping position.

Goalkeeper Glow Up

Colorado’s shot stopping quality hit rock bottom with Zack Steffen in net. His -9.1 Post-Shot Expected Goals minus goals Allowed (PSxG+/-) was a team worst in the last eight years since the stat was first tracked on Football Reference. Despite that, his play against Liga MX squads in the Leagues Cup elevated the Rapids into a third place finish good enough for continental competition in the form of the CONCACAF Champions Cup which, for the Burgundy Boys, opens February 18th at Dicks Sporting Goods Park. I’m going to chalk his previous season up to the European Footy Hangover of readjusting to life in the United States after leaving a prominent hotbed of the sport. I’m hoping that a much more settled Zack Steffen with USMNT prospects in sight can 180 his form. The hypothesis remains simple.

If Zack Steffen achieves a positive PSxG+/-, the Rapids will be a strong Western Conference contender.

The stronger the PSxG+/-, the stronger the team will be. When it comes to tournament play, you want a player of Zack Steffen’s ability. He’s an elimination game riser and as his advanced stats show he ended the season following Bombito’s departure on a much better note. Still at a subpar -1.86, the bulk of the bad shot stopping came early in the season. With a shored up backline, there’s no excuse for Steffen to be letting in low quality shots. Clean sheets are the name of the game here and the more Steffen that racks up this season, the more his steep salary will become easier to stomach.

Midfieldmania

The Rapids midfield is in a great position. Larraz stepped up massively and his leap from reserve player to handy starter and first option depth piece marked a great feather of the cap of the Rapids’ youth pipeline. Ronan continues to be composed in the middle and was an excellent passer for the team last season. Both players made for great ‘Robin’s’ to Cole Bassett’s ‘Batman’.4 2024 will be remembered as Bassett’s best season in Burgundy which was only made possible after his switch from attacking midfield to holding midfielder. It is by far his best position on the pitch despite many fans still projecting him further up the field. His darting ability with the ball from deep caused a lot of problems for opposing defenses and backlines. Bassett received various Best XI nods from pundits around the league given his 2.06 Goals Added was 30th best in the entire league and that number led all defensive midfielders in MLS last year. Quite simply put, the team executes their play style best with Cole Bassett on the field…as a holding midfielder.

If Cole Basset plays out of position, the Rapids will lose their attacking bite.

It’s bizarre how disjointed the team plays when Bassett plays further up the field. When playing further up the field, his errant first touch disrupts the team’s flow in possession. When Bassett carries the ball playing from a deep position, the various players operating around him thrive off the unpredictability of his runs and decision making. His feints and weaves make for excellent ball control, he can ping a nice pass here and there and can also be a massive threat in the box. Bassett can score, pass, and control the ball from deep WHILST ALSO being an active defender in the midfield. His advanced defensive stats don’t paint him in the best of light, but his willingness to try is crucial given he works in conjunction with whoever his pairing in the midfield ends up being. This leads us to another hypothesis for Bassett

If Bassett elevates the defensive aspect of his game, the Rapids will win silverware this season.

Bassett will need to convert more of his attempted tackles into tackles won and his ability to read the defensive side of the game will need to match his instincts in the attack. If Bassett can replicate last season with an improved focus on defense, that opens up his Robin to play to their abilities. Larraz brings you additional defensive help whilst Ronan provides additional midfield creativity. Of the two, Ronan benefits much more with having less work on the defensive side and in situations where you need to close out games, Oliver Larraz slots in as the perfect first sub off the bench. Either midfielder could reliably start though I do think Larraz projects better both as a developing young player in MLS with solid experience and culturally for the club given his home town status. We love a good Box State Baller.

Dreaming Of The Day That We Attack

We’re lumping the wingers, Djordje Mihailovic, and the strikers into one group here analyzing the Rapids attack. Speaking of, how was it in 2024? In short, I would say the Rapids punched above their weight in the goalscoring department. For starters, their 57.5 expected goals was third best in the Western Conference according to FBRef. Dig a little deeper to find their non-penalty expected goals and you’ll see the team’s 45.6 npxG is best for 15th out of 29 teams. We’ve seen the club rely on unorthodox styles of scoring in the past. In 2021, the Burgundy Boys were set piece specialists primarily helped by the architect Jack Price who whipped in picture perfect service throughout that year. In 2024, ten goals from the spot made up 17% of the Rapids total goals for the year whilst leading the league in penalty kicks attempted with fifteen. I’m not sure if that was the intention last year, but I can always appreciate a cheeky game plan of drawing fouls in high value areas on the pitch after already being aggressive in the final third. However, this is not a reliable way to score; intentional or not. The set piece magic eventually wore off for Robin Fraser and I imagine the penalty magic will too this upcoming year.

The Rapids attack will remain in tact if they can improve on their npxG from 2024

Truth be told, xG is not a clear one-for-one indicator of attacking quality.5 The stat tells you the quality of shots. It’s up to the players to capitalize on those chances and if they’re generating more than last year it shows a natural improvement on the team before hand. It also doesn’t have to be true given that what’s most important is goals. The Rapids not only have to raise the floor on the quality of chances but they have to make sure they’re scoring. In 2024, the team scored 57 goals out of an expected 57.5 xG and 47 non-penalty-goals out of 45.6 npxG. This is a good basis to build on and if the Pids can find rhythm, goal scoring flow, and consistency then the goals should come naturally.

Un Véritable Ailier

In 2024, the Rapids had a rotation of players at the winger spot. Omir Fernandez, Calvin Harris, Kevin Cabral, Jonathan Lewis, and Kimani Stewart-Baynes all spent some time on the wing. Of the five wingers, only one really has the makings of an electric ball playing winger and, luckily, it’s the player on a big hefty Designated Player contract. Kevin Cabral has been on the precipice of breaking out for about four seasons now. The French winger who’s lack of goal scoring prowess has been meme’d to oblivion for much of those four seasons. This has to be a standout year for Kevin Cabral for the Rapids to elevate themselves. I know I mentioned earlier that one of the biggest needs for the Rapids is winger but they may already have it in Cabral. His Receiving G+ (1.62) and Shooting G+ (0.32) both trended positively meaning he was getting into the right spots and taking the right chances but there’s still something missing from his game.

If Kevin Cabral overperforms his xG, the Rapids will have found their star winger.

Cabral has yet to overperform his xG in any of his seasons in MLS. The winger’s biggest downside to his game is his lack of scoring. His shooting G+ is best amongst the rest of the winger core on the team and while it’s not an impressive number, it’s still ranks fairly well amongst other MLS wingers.6 Cabral has already proven to get into great spots on the field he just needs luck to go his way and find that form. It could be the difference between the Rapids being a playoff team and being the team we saw to close out the year.

Three Back Tinkering

I know this section is about the wingers but it all lends itself to a big question in it of itself: will the Rapids play out of a back three?

The Rapids played a back three at home against the LA Galaxy in the second leg (out of three)7 of the MLS playoffs. It looked “okay” for about eight minutes before a Zack Steffen blunder shook the team’s confidence and the rest was history.8 I don’t mind the back three and in fact was thrilled to see the Rapids change up their approach especially given how poor they were. This formation obviously doesn’t require the winger core mentioned above and for good reason. Omir Fernandez was a workhorse but couldn’t find attacking form, Calvin Harris was misused on the wing but doesn’t press enough as a striker to start over Navarro, Jonathan Lewis is now gone and Kimani Stewart Baynes still has some developing to do. With all that being said the winger group outside of Cabral has a lot more question marks than definite answers. The right wing spot is there for any of the three guys to seize it and make it theirs.

If the wingers continue to underwhelm, the Rapids will switch to the three back.

I don’t see the club making a splash at a winger signing. I’ve suggested on the podcast that they should go for a guy like Cameron Harper on the Red Bulls who would compliment this team extremely well. 9 This is a “What will the Rapids actually do?” article and not a “what they should do” one. Either way, the team cannot afford to have unproductive wingers especially in the attack. Asking Cabral to refine his shooting is one thing; asking the entire winger depth chart to magically become MLS standouts is another. If none of the three wingers on the right take command the 3-4-3 is likely a go to in the 2025 season.

Designated Duo

Djordje Mihailovic and Rafael Navarro have been two of the most productive DP signings in Rapids history. This would be a hallmark achievement until you see the list of DP players that have donned the Burgundy and Blue10. History is just that and we have true DP caliber players now. The two DP’s combined for 37 Goals and Assists in 2024 and as the focal points in the team the club have done a good job building around them. Mihailovic I have no real qualms or hypothesis about. He has always been a top level MLS player and he’s currently projecting to be the club’s best signing in the Padraig Smith era. I have some mild reservations on Navarro’s game but he did well to shut me up for much of last season. Take away the PK’s and Navarro is still the team’s leading goalscorer, leads the team in Dribbling G+ and works very hard off the ball in Chris Armas’ press. His biggest downside is his receiving numbers, but he makes it up for it with all the other aspects of his game. I also can’t blame those numbers all on him.

If Navarro’s Receivng G+ improves, the team will score 50+ goals.

Navarro’s production is tied to the players behind them for this one. We’re already asking Cabral to be selfish so the onus lies on Mihailovic, the other winger, OR the full backs in a five back system to feed Navarro some dimes. If Navarro spends less time having to create his own chances that opens the team to becoming an unpredictable goal scoring machine. With Bassett coming at you from deep in midfield, Mihailovic’s creating ability, and Cabral’s ability to get into good spots, this really opens up Navarro in the box and we know his goalscoring ability clears the rest of the winger core. You just need somebody to feed him that final ball. Those tap in goals are just as lucrative as the penalties. You just need someone to whip that ball in with pinpoint accuracy.

Conclusive Prediction

I can’t say for certain whether or not this project is where it needs to be for a big 2025 season. There are a lot of things that have to go right for this team to continue their ascent into Western Conference powerhouses. Anything short of playoff contention next year further paints the end of the 2024 season in a bad light.

Any chances at silverware diminish if the Rapids sell and/or lose key players.

Throughout the last few years we’ve seen the team blow up their core and rebuild. This is year two of this project and if any of the more prominent players get sold it’s hard not to look at Rapids history for what that could mean. In 2022 and subsequently 2023 key players for the Rapids either went down with injury or were sold and the team never recovered. MLS history also shows that selling players amidst a championship window is hit or miss. You either do what Columbus Crew did when they sold Lucas Zelarayan and immediately replaced him with Diego Rossi to then win MLS Cup that year; OR you end up like Real Salt Lake who sold Carlos Andres Gomez thus tanking their entire style of play and therefore their Cup window. Is 2025 a cup window for Colorado? It’s yet to be seen. There are more factors in the Rapids control that can ruin their chances than bolster them.

Images: @wednesdayaddamx

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