Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis CITY - USOC Preview
The Colorado Rapids are set to play the most important match of their season. Colorado will host St. Louis CITY in the U.S. Open Cup semifinal. The last time the Rapids were in a semifinal was the 2024 Leagues Cup. LAFC sent the Rapids home, but not without a third-place consolation prize resulting in a 2025 CONCACAF Champions Cup berth. Before that was the Western Conference semifinal in 2021; the cursed 2021 Thanksgiving game that carried much higher stakes and double the heartbreak. Before then, we go to 2016, ten years ago now, to the Jordan Morris goal that stunned Dick's Sporting Goods Park into a haunting silence. The team lacked the attacking juice to rise to the moment, a collective epiphany for those in attendance.
That 2016 team was good at grinding out wins, keeping clean sheets, and being hard to break down. All of this was on offer in 2016, including promising homegrown favorites (Dillon Serna/Darren Yapi), a European DP flier on the wing(Shkelzen Gashi/Morgan Whittaker), and some French guy signed in the Summer window (Letoux/Maziz). The coach? Oh, you mean the one who began their first managerial stint with the Rapids and speaks with an intense and profound motivation the club loves to promote and rally around? For as much as the Op-Ed tried to get away from looking like the 2016 version of the team, ten years later it quickly defaulted into what it used to be. The fabric and identity of the club, as with much of Denver sports, has always been rooted in defensive prowess and ability. As I wrote in my Season Preview:
And despite doubling down on the attacking style of play again, I'm ready to see what this team and front office think about the defensive principles of their game model.
The magic number? Off g+ Allowed p96.
At home, the defense is a sight to see. The confident way in which the team invites pressure, the assuredness of Nico Hansen, the blindsiding Hamzat Ojederian ball wins in midfield, Miguel Navarro's tenacity and coverage, Reggie Cannon' excelling in a settled and more defined role all contrasted with the beautiful chaos of Loic Williams and Rob Holding and the nature of playing out of the back makes for a gut-wrenching but thrilling viewing experience. When I get a chance to see the Rapids live, all that sticks out to me is their defense. It's all one can really trust, even with the now-departed Lucas Herrington.
The "What makes a good team?" pendulum has now swung too far towards defensive quality, meaning we're right back to those 2016 vibes. (Time is a circle, after all.)
Jason Maxwell
Only this time, the front office did something about it. Padraig Smith promised the moves would be bold, and to his credit, the moves have been just that. Flipping Rafael Navarro, Dante Sealy, and Lucas Herrington into a revamped attack is a signal that the attack has not been adequate enough this season. The attacking well has been drying up for Colorado, but they've still managed to eke out just enough for a historic streak of home clean-sheet wins.
Matt Pollard
However, we won't know the true value of this move for years to come. In the immediate, Rafa Navarro is scoring goals and turning it up for St. Louis. In the long term, the Rapids could play themselves towards some late-season form if they find their attacking mojo at just the right times. Again, the best teams don't always win. Sometimes a team that gets hot at the right time is the one that rides their form into "the moment". Historically, when it comes to capitalizing on "the moment," the Rapids have continually proven they at least look good while trying, as it evades them time and time again. The moral wins category is plenty full.
Here was my final verdict on that Measuring xPectations article:
Final Verdict: This team is not a playoff team. Their MLS Cup window depends on a lot of unknowns becoming sure fire products and contributors within one season. This is a building year. The business in the Summer will really determine how wide of a window this team really has-if they can ensure one remains open by the end of the break.
The Rapids have ensured that they have a plausible shot at a MLS Cup run this year. The rest of the U.S. Open Cup is a proving ground to show how feasible that shot is, where the Rapids stand mentally, and more than ever have to ensure their home-field is as much of a fortress as the results have shown.
St. Louis CITY though...
There's no way to sugarcoat this: St. Louis CITY are coming into this game with all the momentum in the world. They are among the hottest teams in MLS right now, masterfully coached by Yoann Damet, and have a clear talent-to-role tactical understanding that the Rapids are lacking. Their new signings are walking right into "the moment" and look to live up to their billing. It also doesn't help this team are 2-0 against the Rapids this season.
Colorado look exactly like the team that have been scraping by on the attacking side and relying on their defense to get them results. The defense has been a blast to watch, but there's a certain swagger this team doesn't have. To the team's credit, they won the games so what does it matter how dominant they were? A win is a win is a win. Yes, in the course of a season where the playoffs is the bar, you take points wherever you can. Especially when they've been hard to come by on the road.
However, those performances don't inspire confidence when the defense slips up, or when, say, the veteran experience of Rob Holding briefly lets him down in game-costing mistakes.
Holding is only human, and he's made up for it in the following games at home (Sidebar: He's also been really close to netting his first Rapids goal), but the team hasn't rescued any points after conceding first, highlighting the team's persistent struggle with adversity. If St. Louis CITY score first or equalize late, how confident are you in the team's current ability to come back and see out the result? At what point does the strong floor give out? The fact that we haven't seen that this season raises some concern.
Looking at the xG/xGA chart above, the team has a very strong defense but doesn't have the attacking hutzpah to compete with the best of teams. You'll see the visitors on the more positive side of the xG average line with a good xGA that pushes them above the average defense but not quite the defensive prowess of this 2016 sequel of the Pids. With a new attack, we'll also see just how much this team will miss Rafa's on both sides of the ball. Does Whittaker/Abu Farkhi move the team towards more attacking legitimacy and will the defense start to get sloppier without the more intentional defending from the front Rafa provided?
It's not often you get to start new eras smack dab in the middle of a cup race, but the Rapids will be doing just that with this new-look attack. When the lights are at their brightest, though, is usually when the team reminds you of the absurdity of your fandom. The last time the lights were bright was the Messi game 30th Anniversary Match against Inter Miami. One could easily pick out moral victories in that one; an actual victory would have stood for far more. It would have said a lot about the evolution of the team. Reader, may I remind you it's been 10 years since the last Rapids MLS Cup playoff win.
Juan Fernandez
Whatever the result, there are no moral victories. The expectation is a win. The Cup has lost a lot of its luster (tickets are very accessible for this one) and there's no doubt that anyone could scoff at it's perceived prestige. But for as much "tradition" and "history" as people claim to want in their American Soccer, here's a trophy that's stood the test of time and is a feather in the cap of any winner. The Rapids have Open Cup demons they've been meaning to exercise; they were the last MLS team to lose a Cup final to a USL side. Since then, it's been all MLS winners. If there was ever a game where the team needs to rise to the occasion (historically, traditionally, and to usher in a new era), this home Open Cup semi is that. So, reader, I hope come the end of the 90 minutes (120 if needed and possibly pens that'll send me into a wreck) we're looking at flights to Columbus or Orlando for a Box State Away Day...
Prediction
This semi-final is about as heads-up as you can get. Both teams will want to control the game state. The Rapids will allow possession before finding a pressing opening for them to recycle and opt into their own patient building-out process. Invite St. Louis too much, and we're bound to see some sticky situations playing out of the back. St. Louis have the talent to win the ball back, ensure control of the ball via their wide play, and barrel down the half spaces when the moment is right. The Rapids defense will have to live up to its billing for this one and meet the St. Louis attack head-on. Just how good is Morgan Whittaker in transition? When the Rapids win the ball high up the field, how does the play facilitate his next-level wing play? There are a lot of questions, and they'll be answered throughout the rest of the season, but in a match that is as must-win as this one, we're hoping for immedatie returns and a taste of what's to come later this season.
Prediction: 1-1. Rapids through on Penalties (3-5 thanks to Nico Hansen).
Goalscorers: Rob Holding, Conrad Wallem
I'm feeling quite squirmish about this one; a feeling I haven't had since Thanksgiving 2021. There's still too much ambiguity in the attack; the midweek cadence of games muddies up the flow, and the stakes are high; both teams have every right to believe in their destiny here. These games usually go to the home team, but I'm hoping the Rapids spare us the emotional roller coaster and just deliver a convincing performance, booking their ticket to the final.
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