Preview - Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas

The Colorado Rapids have had a mixed bag of results to start their 2025. The highs of their first leg CCC win against LAFC was followed up with 180 minutes without a goal and zero total shots on target-the longest span without a shot on target in the Pids history1. There’s plenty to like about the increase in dawg and sheer defensive force but as said in the previous Box State Footy Game Preview:

It’s going to get pretty complicated for the Rapids here if they wish to start the season on a good note and advance in the CCC

The Rapids snuck their way into CCC and to the club’s credit, they kept it really interesting right up until the end. Most years, whilst competing in CCC, the team would usually get crushed in the subsequent regular season matchup and get off to a bad start. I think how you start the season matters and these early games are an indication of what the season has in store for the team. For the Pids, getting out of CCC could be a blessing in disguise.

Flow State (The State of Flow)

There wasn’t much flowing for the Burgundy Boys these past two matches. I was a drunken mess for the St. Louis game and I’ve had to catch up on my work over the weekend so I couldn’t really dive into this thrilling nil-nil matchup. But, there’s really only one takeaway from that game: Zack Steffen balled out. If that game is his floor, I’m ready to be served plenty of crow this season.

What stood out to me in the LAFC match was just how easily the Rapids settled in to their structure. The best way to play against Chris Armas is to cede possession. The Pids can’t press you into bad situations and costly turnovers if you don’t have the ball. LAFC’s quick transition attacks were nullified by the midfield structure. The Black and Gold wanted to implement a negative style of play, a sentiment echoed by Mitch Peotter on this week’s Burgundy Banter2. The Rapids did their best to limit whatever rhythm LAFC wanted to get into and it worked enough for a 0-0 result at halftime. The second half came by and the LAFC overrun started to come. They came out more aggressive, more keen to shoot, and once they got the game clinching goal- in what felt like a “next goal wins” game state- they sat back and let the Rapids back pass to finish out the game. Ultimately, a lot of the pessimism following the match stems from that fact. Quite simply, the Rapids attack ghosted. But not without some valid excuses. The third game in seven days didn’t help, 2,700 miles traveled is a lot for anybody, and they don’t have quality depth to rely on. Well, that last one is not a valid excuse. The depth has been lacking for quite a while even with injuries to account for. There’s not much of a spark if Alex Harris, Wayne Frederick, and Kimani Stewart-Baynes are getting the call in a must score game. A better use of their time would have been seeing them play more minutes in the Leagues Cup; a tournament that derailed the Pids’ latter half of the season.

Revisiting The Attack

So, what’s wrong with the attack? Well, lets look at my hypothesis for the attack…

If Cole Basset plays out of position, the Rapids will lose their attacking bite.

Well, that prediction is looking quite good for all the wrong reasons. Cole Basset lined up as a left winger in the Pids last two matches3. It’s a small sample size and it’s not an easy solution given there could have been other factors for his inclusion at the left wing spot. Not that formations and player positions are ever one for one to where they are on the field, players shift around a bunch. Bassett was in a bunch of places likely shifting around to find the team’s best fit. Despite settling in, the team never set up shop for an attacking game plan. What you get in defensive solidity with Josh Atencio and Oliver Larraz, you lose attacking bite because it forces Bassett out of his best position. All the defensive praise lauded at the Rapids comes from this solid improvement of the team’s middle four.

This is a strong spine and midfield block. It just takes too much away from the attack. Ideally, one of Larraz or Atencio needs to be the Robin to Cole’s Batman. You can’t have both-not if you want to have a thriving attack. They’re two very similar players and they each have a defensive advantage to their game. Atencio reads the game well and has good defensive instincts whilst Larraz has a surprising physicality to his game that often stuns opposing players and catches them off guard. Both also lack that “next forward pass”. They can both carry the piano very well; but they need a player like Bassett to really make the most of their performances. I’m not opposed to all three of them playing once the Rapids have a lead and need to close out a game. However, we may likely see them again given the lack of attacking options. Theodore Ku-DiPietro is not expected until mid-March, Darren Yapi is two months out, and between Omir Fernandez and Calvin Harris there’s not a clear starter. It’s pretty evident the team is lacking here in this department. Those reinforcements can not come soon enough. Perhaps an additional one or two?

All My Ex’s Live In Texas

FC Dallas are in town and they’re coming off a 2-1 victory on the road against rivals Houston Dynamo. Hello and welcome back to Lalas Abubakar who will be in opposing colors for the first time since 2019. Unfortunately for Pids fans, they may not likely see him on the pitch. Abubakar looks to be saddled with a depth role behind new center back signing Osaze Urhoghide who arrives from Ligue 2 side Amiens. He’s a physical center back who is adept at playing against the ball, has sheer physicality, and knows just the right times to step into tackles and provide defensive cover. So far, he’s proven reliable for new head coach Eric Quill who arrives from New Mexico United4. Quill benefits from a complete shake up of the FC Dallas roster. New signings Ramiro Benetti, Anderson Julio, and Shaq Moore all look like upgrades if not like for like replacements for former starters Asier Illaramendi, Paul Arriola, and Ruan.

The biggest addition is that of Luciano Acosta who’s transfer saga was one to watch this offseason. After a carousel of moves that landed Evander in Cincinnati and David da Costa in Portland, Dallas ended up with a dynamic Number 10 who boasts silky dribbling ability, potent goalscoring threat, and team elevating ability. There’s a lot to like about the squad and it’s makeover, but I’m not sold on them entirely.

But you’re sold on the Rapids?

Dallas played a Houston Dynamo side without their two best center backs. The injured Erik Sviatchenko and the recently transferred Micael were pillars in the Houston defense and were among the best center back pairings in the league. Without them, the Dynamo gave up not just one bad goal but two bad goals that I don’t think this Rapids defense will concede5. Any pace is easily muzzled by Reggie Cannon, Chidozie Awaziem and Ian Murphy will need to be hawks and keep a close eye on Musa, Keegan Rosenberry’s veteran presence should counter Bernard Kamungo’s overall inexperience but his natural ability still has potential to burn. I do like the matchups here and even with heavy legs the Rapids defense should hold up well against this front three. The main issue lies behind the three. How do you stop the puppeteer Luciano Acosta? If the club is dead-set on having Larraz and Atencio as the starting double pivots, those two should easily force Acosta into some uncomfortable situations. If it’s one or the other next to Bassett, I like the overall increase to the attack but there are defensive concerns given you’re not completely locking Acosta down. The best way to disrupt a dribbler is to smother him. Dallas are improved, but their attack isn't half of what Cincinnati’s has been and it’s completely shell-shocked if the center backs lock up Petar Musa.

Now for the hard part: The attack. Lets go with two scenarios: one with Basset & Atencio/Larraz and one with Larraz & Atencio at the double pivot. First, the boring one.

This is the “Lucho Lockdown” protocol formation. The attack suffers because Bassett plays directly into Shaq Moore’s best defensive strength as a space limiter, Rafael Navarro is going to have a very physical night against Urhoghide, and Kevin Cabral remains an evergreen underperforming winger6. It will be up to the team to find space for Djordje Mihailovic to operate within. Against LAFC, his space was heavily limited and he was hounded for much of the night. Mihailovic has Ramiro Benetti and Sebastian Lletget to compete with for second balls, aerial duels, and each will be maneuvering for a space advantage in midfield. If he is to be that standout MVP caliber player Rapids fans have projected him to be7, this is his chance to take over the attack and run circles around this Dallas midfield. Mihailovic will likely be pressing the less skillful Ramiro off the ball whilst attacking the defensively weak Sebastian Lletget. If Navarro’s going to be occupied with one of the two center backs in Sebastian Ibeagha or Urhoghide, one of those players is going to have to step to Mihailovic. That should open up some space for Cabral if he can beat his left back marker Marco Farfan-who he should do well against. This, however, would be the third time this eleven featured in seven days and I think we likely see some rotation.

Rotating Mihailovic here allows for some firepower to come into the later stages of the game. Everything about Djordje’s utilization applies here with the only difference being he’d go up against tired legs making his inclusion even more of a threat. Omir Fernandez has largely been played as a winger, but he could reliably fill in and put in a shift at the #10 spot more so than at the wing. Stewart-Baynes has yet to receive a start and there’s no better spot for him than a home opener following lots of heavy fatigue and travel. Same could be said for Calvin Harris, but his profile of winger hasn’t been a one-for-one fit in the Armas system.

However it shakes up, and whoever rotates in, the only important shift here is Bassett dropping into the holding midfield role. This is his best positions as he can progress, pass, and shoot the ball in very opportune areas that he just rarely gets playing further up the field. I did not rotate the backline and that’s mostly due to the injuries. Naturally, Andreas Maxso, Jackson Travis, and perhaps Michael Edwards could see some time here, but the former two are questionable and Edwards is likely a better sub option for either Murphy or Awaziem late in the game.

Predictions

I can’t say whether or not we’ll see some rotation. Whatever happens, Cole Bassett should play deeper and if the Rapids attack goes out with a whimper again with him further up the field, then that’s another addition to the sample size from my hypothesis above. I will start to sour on the Atencio deal if it means Bassett is shifting up the field permanently. A lot of people had soured on the move not because they didn’t like Atencio but because a top caliber winger is what’s been missing from this team. If the team believes Bassett can fill that role, they really should look back to Bassett’s 2024 season and see where his best metrics came from. If Bassett plays as a winger, those entry passes into the attacking third are going to be heavily limited. Both Moore and Urhoghide from Dallas are good at keeping danger out. Bassett is not going to be able to receive well against these backs and he’s better suited to collect the ball in the middle to do his thing.

As mentioned earlier, Rapids should do well to limit the Dallas attack. They have raw pace on the wings, top quality talent between Musa and Acosta, but they lack midfield bite which is where the Pids may likely find their point of pressure. I have no doubts the Rapids will do well to win the ball in midfield, even with the fatigue, but how they get the ball into the final third will be most interesting. Again, Bassett is going to be hounded if he plays further up the field. You can forget about attacking cohesion if he plays there again. From a deeper position, Bassett can collect the ball and start to ask questions of Dallas’ defensive structure. Who steps to Bassett in the event he drives the ball? If a full back steps up, you allow the wingers to find space in behind, if Ramiro or Lletget step up, you open space for Mihailovic to maneuver and if one of the two center backs step up, you ease some pressure off Navarro who will have a busy day with Urhoghide. Notice I haven’t been saying Ibeagha? The Pids should do well to expose his game as he’s not the most reliable with the ball at his feet. Press him for the ball, and the Rapids could get a quick turnover goal.

Similar to last week’s game preview, I don’t want to overhype myself into a result especially given the midweek fatigue. I don’t imagine we will see the Rapids at their best but they’ll have plenty to feel good about with it being the home opener and with some much needed rest. Dallas is going to have a much harder time beating a defensively solid team and overall, their attack isn’t nearly as polished as the game against Houston showed. They are in their growing pains and will likely tinker with the squad as Eric Quill continues to find his best XI. They may already have it, hopefully the Rapids don’t just yet.
Score Prediction: 1-0

Goalscorer - Kevin Cabral

I’ve gone on record in buying a ton of Kevin Cabral stock over the offseason. So, I’m throwing a long dart here in picking him to score. Two teams with plenty of questions surrounding their recent games. The Rapids should be able to play their game, but will they break the dead lock? That’s the most important question here and if there’s another performance with zero shots on goal, then it’s time for a conversation. Until then, a Rapids home win puts this team in a great position following the CCC exit and following this match, the team should start to get back into a steady rhythm for the season.

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